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The death toll from the Himalayan flash floods has crossed 480, with more than 1,000 still missing. Meanwhile, authorities warn an overflowing lake formed by debris could trigger a second wave of flooding.
A lake formed by a landslide on the Nepal-China border began overflowing on Friday, threatening areas already devastated by this week's flash floods and halting rescue efforts, authorities said. "We have received a notice saying that the lake has broken its banks," Narendra Pariyar, the most senior bureaucrat of the hard-hit Rasuwa district, told DW. "We can see that the level of water in the river is rising."
Residents in Nepal's border district of Rasuwa were seen fleeing up hillsides as they braced for a surge in river levels, Reuters reported. Due to the risk of the lake bursting, all Chinese rescue personnel were told to withdraw to a safe area, state broadcaster CCTV said. Nepal authorities also paused rescue operations for the next 90 minutes, an army official told Reuters.
Rescuers have been racing to find hundreds of people still missing, two days after a catastrophic flash flood struck the Himalayan border between Nepal and China. Nepal police said Friday morning the country's death toll had passed 480, up from 390 a day earlier. China has updated its earlier count of three to five deaths in Tibet. The two countries said more than 1,000 people remained missing, including as many as 540 foreigners from more than 30 countries.
What is the latest update from China?
Wednesday's disaster, triggered by a glacial collapse that sent rock and meltwater surging into rivers below, left a new danger in its wake: a barrier lake formed upstream by debris dams. China's Ministry of Water Resources said the lake held roughly 2 million cubic meters of water as of Thursday and was expected to receive another 3 million cubic meters — equivalent to about 1,200 Olympic swimming pools — over the following three days, with peak flow expected around September 1.
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Chinese national broadcaster CCTV said the lake's barrier sat more than 10 kilometers (6.2 miles) from Gyirong Port, the border crossing that was engulfed by the initial flood, and is at an elevation roughly 1,000 meters (3,280 feet) above it. The country had mobilized an eight-member engineering team to survey the lake by air and build 3D models of the site. Engineer Chen Hanxiao described the difficulty of the terrain: "After the glacier collapse created the lake, many isolated cliffs and steep cliffs appeared along it," he told CCTV.
He said the team's general strategy was to dig a drainage channel at a lower point of the dam, though the channel's exact width and depth would depend on calculations of water flow and how quickly the lake continued to fill. Their survey found the lake to be about 150 meters long and 40-50 meters deep. Continuing rain in the area, which is forecast to last through the coming week, has further destabilized the surrounding soil and rock.
What did Nepal say about search and rescue?
Nepal's Foreign Ministry said Friday it does not need foreign assistance for search-and-rescue operations, despite offers of help from several countries with nationals still missing. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Lok Bahadur Chhetri said Nepal's security agencies were managing the response. "The offer for help is natural. Our security agencies are doing the search and rescue operation. For now we don't require such help," he said.
Hundreds of foreign nationals remain unaccounted for, including from South Korea, which has already sent a response team and plans to dispatch a disaster relief unit. South Korea's Foreign Ministry confirmed that Nepal had indicated it was not yet ready to accept foreign rescue teams, adding, "South Korea will keep negotiating with Nepal over the matter."
Seoul has pledged $1 million (€860,000) in humanitarian aid through international organizations, after reporting nine of its nationals missing and 10 stranded after a hydropower plant they were working at was hit by the flood. According to local media, India, China, the United States, Britain, Japan, South Korea, Sri Lanka and Bangladesh have all asked Nepal's government for permission to send their own search-and-rescue teams to assist.
Author: Seerat Chabba with AP, Reuters
Edited by: Natalie Muller
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Tragedy in Nepal: How do flash floods happen?
When flash floods sweep through the Himalayas, there is often little time to react. Scientists are working to understand the risks and improve early warning systems.
The disaster in the border region between China and Nepal was as sudden as it was unexpected: Within just 10 minutes, enormous volumes of water and debris swept 20 kilometers downstream on Wednesday, with devastating consequences for thousands of people in the region. Flash floods are a frequent occurrence in the Himalayas. "They are more the rule than the exception," says Niels Hovius, head of the Geomorphology Section at the GFZ Helmholtz Centre for Geosciences in Potsdam. He has worked in the Himalayas and other mountainous regions for many years and is an expert on early warning systems.
What triggered the flash flood?
Scientific data indicate that the disaster began with a glacier collapse in the northern part of the Langtang massif: a large amount of ice broke away and turned into a massive ice avalanche. The Langtang massif is located in central Nepal near the border with China. "This glacier collapse sent huge amounts of ice rapidly downhill," says Hovius. The heat generated by friction melted the ice into water, which then swept up debris and mud.
The resulting mudflow moved downhill at speeds "reached by passenger cars on German highways." Seismological instruments recorded an earthquake measuring 4.4 on the Richter scale at the time of the glacier collapse. However, Hovius says, it was not a "classic" or tectonic earthquake. Instead, the instruments measured the force of the falling glacier.
Why can flash floods in the Himalayas be so devastating?
Flash floods in high mountain regions can be triggered in different ways — by glacier collapses or by so-called glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs, or Glacier Lake Outburst Floods). In such cases, the topography around a glacial lake suddenly changes, for example when a slope collapses into the lake. The large volume of water that suddenly spills over the lake's banks can then turn into torrents rushing downstream. In this particular case, however, it is clear that this was not a GLOF, says Hovius. Landslides can also cause deadly mudflows without any glaciers or glacial lakes being involved.
In the Himalayas, all three types of events are possible, and historical data show that all three occur regularly, Hovius says. Compared with the Alps, the valleys of the Himalayas are relatively narrow. The water and mud cannot spread out but are instead forced into a confined space, increasing their depth and speed. In addition to the speed of the water and debris, the extent of the devastation caused by a flash flood depends on how far local populations are from the source.
How can people be protected from flash floods?
Nepal faces two major challenges. Many people have settled along rivers in the valleys of the Himalayas — in precisely the areas that are vulnerable to flash floods. Secondly, there are very few early warning systems in the country, which is one of the poorest in Asia. Even with a timely warning, the particularly devastating flash flood would have given people only a few minutes to reach safety. Hovius describes a flood that occurred in the same region last year. It was smaller, and therefore less severe.
At the time, it took the water an hour to reach a settlement — enough time for people to escape if they had received a timely warning. "There are initiatives in Nepal to establish local acoustic early warning systems," says Hovius. However, these systems are available only on a very limited scale. At most, they cover one percent of areas at risk. The GFZ researcher adds that mobile phones should be used to send people warnings via push notifications.
Hovius is researching how the data needed for such a system could be generated. Checks should also be made on how settlements are planned, Hovius says. At present, the bulk of a community's infrastructure is concentrated along rivers. "People have moved down from the mountains and settled in the valleys over the past few decades. Perhaps it would make sense to move back to higher ground."
Are flash floods in mountainous areas more frequent amid climate change?
"Attributing individual events to climate change is always difficult," Hovius says. But it is clear that glaciers in high mountain regions become less stable as temperatures rise. Larger volumes of water are also accumulating in glacial lakes, making GLOFs more likely. As for the current flash flood, it is too early to say whether climbing temperatures caused the glacier to collapse. Flash floods have long been a regular occurrence in the Himalayas. "But I think it is likely that we will see more and more of these events," Hovius says, warning that future disasters could be even more serious.
Author Julia Vergin
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